Guest Blog: 3 Things You Didn't Know About the Virginia Race for Governor
TL;DR: My friend Tom shares three unique facts about the race for Governor in Virginia to keep in mind as the race progresses. Thanks to Tom for letting me share his content! You can read more of what Tom has to say at his website here.
In case you missed it, former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe won the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Virginia. That's right, he's making a comeback in 2021 to rebuild the economy so that all Virginians can prosper. Or at least that's what his website says. I don't think there was ever a doubt that McAuliffe would win, so his 62.2% victory didn't come as a surprise.
On the other side of the aisle is Virginia Beach native-Christian-youth basketball coach-investment banker-Harvard Business graduate-D1 Athlete-faithful husband-millionaire Glenn Youngkin. He's aiming to end the 12-year Republican dry spell because Virginians need a new type of governor to bring a new day in Virginia. Yes, that one is also from his website.
Democrats are of course going to try painting Youngkin as a Trump-protégé. The same way I’m sure Republicans are going to appeal to voters wallets' by tying McAuliffe to the dismal and disappointing progress of President Biden’s Build Back Better plan. While both candidates are probably the most viable mainstream options from each party, here are a few unique things about Virginia’s electorate that I found out while learning about them.
1. The Oddity of Virginia’s Term Limits
As far as term limits go, Virginia Governors have one of the weirdest. According to the Virginia Constitution, "He shall be ineligible to the same office for the term next succeeding that for which he was elected, and to any other office during his term of service."
In plain English, Governors can't serve consecutive terms, but it doesn't say anything about them serving non-consecutive terms. Also, how unwoke of the Virginia Constitution to say “he”, amiright?!?!
Despite failed attempts by the state legislature to amend the Constitution so that popular Governors can serve consecutive terms, Terry McAuliffe may prove that patience is in fact a virtue if he wins and becomes the first Virginia Governor to serve a second term since 1974.
2. Voter Turnout Increased 18% in the Last Decade
Whether you believe turnout increased because of the "Anybody but Trump" movement, or that there was mass election fraud due to "mail-in ballot irregularities”, there is no doubt that something lit a spark under the nation in 2020. This spark resulted in statewide voter turnout being 10% higher than even Obama's 2008 election. Pollsters like Sabato and Cook will spend the next election cycle evaluating whether or not the voter enthusiasm of 2020 will spill over into 2022 but I remain skeptical of voter turnout as a main determiner of viability for two reasons:
Voting by mail increased by 350% in 2020. Who knows what voting will be like post-pandemic?
Turnout in gubernatorial elections has increased 17.8% in the last decade.
3. Voter Registration Increased 6% in 2020
An increase in voter registration isn't too out of the ordinary, honestly. In fact, Virginia voter registration grew by 10.7% during the Obama/McCain election in 2008. While Virginia doesn't require or record party affiliation when citizens register to vote it's still an important metric to keep in mind since there are lots of new motivated voters from the Trump/Biden election.
So what happens when you combine the favorability of a former governor, increased voter registration, and increased voter turnout? It’s hard to tell but the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races are among the first indicators as to how 2022 candidates will fair.
Tom is a digital marketing specialist, a former political consultant, and proud Dog Dad to Brady. He currently lives in Austin, Texas. He’s also my best friend. You can learn more about him, see his resumé, read more of his writings at his personal website here. You can read his original version of this article here.
